A means to an industrialisation end? Demand side management in Nigeria

Electricity is essential for economic development and industrialisation processes. Balancing demand and supply is a recurrent problem in the Nigerian electricity market. The aim of this work is to assess the technical and economic potential of Demand Side Management (DSM) in Nigeria given different future levels of industrialisation. The paper places industrialisation at the centrefold of the appraisal of DSM potential in Nigeria. It does so by designing industrialisation scenarios and consequently deriving different DSM penetration levels using a cost-optimisation model. Findings show that under the high industrialisation scenario by the year 2050 DSM could bring about 7 billion USD in cumulative savings thanks to deferred investment in new generation and full deployment of standby assets along with interruptible programmes for larger industrial users. The paper concludes by providing policy recommendations regarding financial mechanisms to increase DSM deployment in Nigeria. The focus on DSM serves to shift the policy debate on electricity in Nigeria from a static state versus market narrative on supply to an engagement with the agency and influence on industrial end-users

Energy

The impact of energy policy measures has been assessed with various appraisal and evaluation tools since the 1960s. Decision analysis, environmental impact assessment and strategic environmental assessment are all notable examples of progenitors of Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) in the assessment of energy policies, programmes and projects. This chapter provides overview of policy tools which have been historically applied to assess the impacts of energy policies, programmes and projects. It focuses on the types of data and models that typically inform RIAs for energy policies; the organisations involved; and issues of data exchange between energy companies and policy-makers. Examples are derived from the European Commission, the UK, Italy, the Netherlands and France. It is concluded that the technical and economic analysis underpinning RIAs on energy policy and regulation varies significantly depending on the type of organisation carrying them out

Time of the day dependence of social practices and energy demand

The starting point of this work is that the time dependence of social practices at specific points of the day shapes the timing of energy demand. This work aims to assess how dependent energy-related social practices in the household are in relation to the time of the day. The analysis of the 2005 Office for National Statistics National Time Use Survey makes use of statistically-derived time dependence calculations for six social practice: preparing food, washing, cleaning, washing clothes, watching TV and using a computer. The focus is on social practices over temporal scales of different days of the week and months of the year, with particular emphasis on February and June. Findings will have implications on the way flexibility is conceptualised and the effectiveness of intervention aimed at practices rather than individuals (e.g. through price and technology)

Explaining shifts in UK electricity demand using time use data from 1974 to 2014

Peaks in electricity demand generate significant negative environmental and economic impacts. As a result recent policy and research attention has focused on the potential for temporal flexibility of demand, especially in the context of intermittent low-carbon generation. Much of this work emphasises the need to understand what makes up the peak and to engineer socio-technical solutions to meet this 'normal' consumption. However today's patterns of temporal consumption may only be a snapshot of continuing change. This paper uses UK household time-use survey data to analyse change in temporal patterns of activities over the last 40 years to shed light on apparent temporal shifts in overall UK electricity demand. The results highlight long term gradual evolution in when and where people work, travel, eat, use media and carry out social activities. In particular they suggest that changing patterns of labour market participation may be contributing to shifts in food related, personal/home care and media activities. The former in particular are correlated with shifts in electricity demand. We conclude that both stable and dynamic social structures and forms of organisation have direct implications for policy debates around current and future flexible demand-side solutions

The risk of residential peak electricity demand: a comparison of five European countries

The creation of a Europe-wide electricity market combined with the increased intermittency of supply from renewable sources calls for an investigation into the risk of aggregate peak demand. This paper makes use of a risk model to assess differences in time use data from residential end-users in five different European electricity markets. Drawing on the Multinational Time-Use Survey database, it assesses risk in relation to the probability of electrical appliance use within households for five European countries. Findings highlight in which countries and for which activities the risk of aggregate peak demand is higher and link smart home solutions (automated load control, dynamic pricing and smart appliances) to different levels of peak demand risk

Categories, Concepts and Units : Representing energy demand in and through time

Preprin

Household electricity demand, the intrinsic flexibility index and UK wholesale electricity market prices

During peak electricity demand periods, prices in wholesale markets can be up to nine times higher than during off-peak periods. This is because if a vast number of users is consuming electricity at the same time, power plants with higher greenhouse gas emissions and higher system costs are typically activated. In the UK, the residential sector is responsible for about one third of overall electricity demand and up to 60% of peak demand. This paper presents an analysis of the 2014-2015 Office for National Statistics National Time Use Survey with a view to derive an intrinsic flexibility index based on timing of residential electricity demand. It analyses how the intrinsic flexibility varies compared with wholesale electricity market prices. Findings show that spot prices and intrinsic flexibility to shift activities vary harmoniously throughout the day. Reflections are also drawn on the application of this research to work on demand side flexibility

Temporal aggregation: time use methodologies applied to residential electricity demand

Understanding what constitutes peaks and identifying areas of effective load shifting intervention becomes vital to the balancing of demand and supply of electricity. Whilst there is information about the aggregate level of consumption of electricity, little is known about residential peak demand and what levels of flexibility might be available. Specifically, methodologies linking people’s activities and residential electricity load profiles are typically under-investigated. The overall aim of this paper is to introduce methodologies which capture the variation in sequences of activities taking place at times of peak electricity demand. The paper introduces a set of analytical tools which can be deployed when examining time use survey data in energy demand research. It presents the state of the art with modelling load profiles based on time use data and design methodological modifications to improve modelling around peak periods. It is demonstrated how the methodologies presented in the paper can be applied to specific understanding of distributional effects of Time of Use tariffs. The paper discusses issues associated with validation between synthetic data, survey data and electricity metered data and concludes with policy implications and some observations for future research